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RISING STARS
OF OPEN SOURCE
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At Oxx, we’re focused on partnering with the best scaling software teams.

 

Working with open source driven software companies presents a unique challenge though: how as an investor do you evaluate the pre-financial traction of an open source software project? How can one measure the activity of a community – the leading indicator of the explosive growth that open source projects can achieve?

 

The simplest answer would be the surface-level information readily available from the open source repos themselves: stars, forks, watchers and downloads. These metrics are often correlated with community activity, and they demonstrate some level of awareness of a project, but they don’t get to the heart of the unit of community activity: the engaged contributor.

 

That’s why in 2021 we shared a methodology for measuring not just awareness but of engagement with an open source project - a way of tracking "product community fit".

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Rather than focus on surface level metrics, we reviewed repo logs for specific projects themselves and identified specific contributors and their activities. By looking at the engagement levels of these contributors over time, we could build a quantitative picture of the growth in engagement. We could identify the rising stars of the open source software landscape.

 

2021 Rising Stars of OSS: where are they now?

 

Having backtested our methodology for measuring open source traction on over 175,000 projects, over 15 years of historical engagement data, we developed a clear view on the leading indicators of open source growth.

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ABOUT THE REPORT

Open Source companies operate in a unique ecosystem characterised by open collaboration, community involvement, and diverse revenue models. The open source approach to software development and business differs from companies that rely on proprietary software licensing models, and therefore working with open source driven software companies presents a unique challenge. These businesses often commercialise only when a product is more mature, already has significant user adoption and traction from an open source community of creators and users. 

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Minted unicorns

In capital raised

So, as an investor, is it possible to evaluate the pre-financial traction of these open source software projects? How can one measure the activity of a community – the leading indicator of the explosive growth that open source projects can achieve?

 

Each year, Oxx analyses the open source landscape, to identify which businesses in the open source ecosystem show signs of becoming successful, sustainable companies. We have developed a methodology that combines both awareness and engagement metrics for open source projects and allows us to identify high-potential projects before they reach significant scale. We look at "Product Community Fit", measuring the active creator base of a project as an indicator of engagement and future fundraising potential, resulting  in our mapping of the “Rising Stars of Open Source”. 

22

Identified companies

4-5

Minted unicorns

>1,500M$

In raised capital

ABOUT
PRESENTED AT
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METHODOLOGY

Having backtested our methodology for measuring open source traction on over 175,000 projects, over 15 years of historical engagement data, we have developed a clear view on the leading indicators of open source growth with the concept of Product Community Fit.

 

Historical data taught us that projects with accelerating engagement levels, entering the 50-100 active creators “zone” would be highly likely to commercialise successfully, and to continue to scale.

Data Analysis using BQ

Backtesting and historical data

Leading indicators of engagement levels

Enrich data with Github APIs

Selection of Rising Stars Cohort

Export and Evaluation

METHODOLOGY
RISING STARS OF OPEN SOURCE 2023

Dive into the insights, explore the trends, and discover the potential of this year's high-potential companies.

 

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CONTACT

DISCLAIMER

For inquiries about methodology and analysis, reach out to Bob Thomas.

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The contents of this report is for informational purposes only. Such information contained herein are the author’s alone and are not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice to purchase any security or any investment product or service. The information should not be relied upon for legal, accounting or tax advice or investment recommendations. Any reproduction or distribution of the information in this newsletter, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of its contents to any person other than to a professional adviser is prohibited without the prior written consent of Oxx Ltd. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. Oxx Ltd and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information. Such information, opinions and images are subject to change and Oxx Ltd has no obligation to update the information contained in this newsletter. Recipients should make their own determination as to whether a particular investment opportunity is suitable for their investment needs or should seek such professional advice before making any investment decision.

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